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Prelims1 Middleweight

Roman Kopylov vs Gregory Rodrigues

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev ·Madison Square Garden
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Roman Kopylov
Gregory Rodrigues
49% 51%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
34
Age
Δ 0y
34
15-6
Career record
Δ 5 pp
20-6
L1
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kopylov: 52 sig / 2 TD · Rodrigues: 90 sig / 0 TD
Roman Kopylov
Gregory Rodrigues
56
Sig strikes landed
69
123
Sig strikes attempted
143
68
Total strikes landed
77
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
69s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Roman Kopylov

15-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
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W UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
Blue corner
W1

Gregory Rodrigues

"Robocop"
20-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—