Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Eliezer Kubanza
Christopher Alvidrez
61%
39%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Kubanza: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Alvidrez: 33 sig / 0 TD
Eliezer Kubanza
Christopher Alvidrez
33
Sig strikes landed
35
69
Sig strikes attempted
74
45
Total strikes landed
46
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.4
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
134s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Eliezer Kubanza
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Christopher Alvidrez
"The Newborn"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29