Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Louis Jourdain
Magno Dias
84%
16%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Jourdain: 78 sig / 0 TD ·
Dias: 26 sig / 1 TD
Louis Jourdain
Magno Dias
48
Sig strikes landed
43
103
Sig strikes attempted
88
66
Total strikes landed
58
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
143s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Louis Jourdain
"The Mad Prince"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Magno Dias
"The Violence"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Age
30