Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Vitor Costa
Damian Pinas
49%
51%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
25
Age
Δ 1y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 1
Costa: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Pinas: 17 sig / 0 TD
Vitor Costa
Damian Pinas
34
Sig strikes landed
38
72
Sig strikes attempted
78
46
Total strikes landed
54
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
105s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Vitor Costa
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Damian Pinas
"The Baba Yaga"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24