Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jeisla Chaves
Sofia Montenegro
61%
39%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
29
Age
Δ 2y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Chaves: 85 sig / 0 TD ·
Montenegro: 64 sig / 1 TD
Jeisla Chaves
Sofia Montenegro
36
Sig strikes landed
36
83
Sig strikes attempted
84
88
Total strikes landed
63
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
192s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jeisla Chaves
"A Braba"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Sofia Montenegro
"La Bruja"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26