Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mahamed Aly
Iwo Baraniewski
41%
59%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Aly: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Baraniewski: 4 sig / 0 TD
Mahamed Aly
Iwo Baraniewski
31
Sig strikes landed
31
66
Sig strikes attempted
65
41
Total strikes landed
71
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
109s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mahamed Aly
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
Iwo Baraniewski
"Rudy"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27