Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tommy Gantt
Adam Livingston
65%
35%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 5"
72"
33
Age
Δ 9y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Gantt: 3 sig / 2 TD ·
Livingston: 1 sig / 0 TD
Tommy Gantt
Adam Livingston
36
Sig strikes landed
34
71
Sig strikes attempted
76
76
Total strikes landed
43
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.6
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
164s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Tommy Gantt
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
Adam Livingston
"Bomb"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24