Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Felipe Franco
Freddy Vidal
76%
24%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
25
Age
Δ 7y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Franco: 33 sig / 6 TD ·
Vidal: 42 sig / 0 TD
Felipe Franco
Freddy Vidal
33
Sig strikes landed
32
67
Sig strikes attempted
64
57
Total strikes landed
42
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
114s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Felipe Franco
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Freddy Vidal
"The Barbarian"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31