Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chasen Blair
Samuel Sanches
33%
67%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
27
Age
Δ 4y
23
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Blair: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Sanches: 12 sig / 0 TD
Chasen Blair
Samuel Sanches
43
Sig strikes landed
52
103
Sig strikes attempted
111
51
Total strikes landed
74
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
62s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Chasen Blair
"Mestizo"
7-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 8.9
—
Blue corner
Samuel Sanches
"The Prodigy"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23