Back to UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Bia Mesquita vs Irina Alekseeva

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot ·Farmasi Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Bia Mesquita
Irina Alekseeva
72% 28%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
67"
34
Age
Δ 1y
35
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Mesquita: 36 sig / 2 TD · Alekseeva: 6 sig / 0 TD
Bia Mesquita
Irina Alekseeva
43
Sig strikes landed
37
89
Sig strikes attempted
103
96
Total strikes landed
60
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
174s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
30%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Bia Mesquita

"The Lady GOAT"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
Blue corner
L2

Irina Alekseeva

"Russian Ronda"
5-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
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