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Prelims1 Flyweight

Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot ·Farmasi Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Lucas Rocha
Stewart Nicoll
82% 18%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
25
Age
Δ 4y
30
18-3
Career record
Δ 19 pp
8-4
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rocha: 115 sig / 3 TD · Nicoll: 45 sig / 2 TD
Lucas Rocha
Stewart Nicoll
31
Sig strikes landed
21
59
Sig strikes attempted
60
57
Total strikes landed
49
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
159s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
33%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Lucas Rocha

"Fenomeno"
18-3
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
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Blue corner
L1

Stewart Nicoll

"Kakamora"
8-4
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
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