Back to UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Prelims1 Featherweight

Lucas Almeida vs Michael Aswell Jr.

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot ·Farmasi Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Lucas Almeida
Michael Aswell Jr.
48% 52%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
35
Age
Δ 10y
25
15-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
11-5
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Almeida: 9 sig / 0 TD · Aswell Jr.: 30 sig / 0 TD
Lucas Almeida
Michael Aswell Jr.
94
Sig strikes landed
71
197
Sig strikes attempted
164
100
Total strikes landed
87
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.90
104s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Lucas Almeida

15-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
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W UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
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L UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
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L UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
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W UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
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Blue corner
L1

Michael Aswell Jr.

"The Texas Kid"
11-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
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