Prelims1
Flyweight
Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
·Farmasi Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jafel Filho
Clayton Carpenter
68%
32%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
17-6
Career record
Δ 7 pp
8-4
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Filho: 5 sig / 1 TD ·
Carpenter: 7 sig / 0 TD
Jafel Filho
Clayton Carpenter
23
Sig strikes landed
20
51
Sig strikes attempted
39
46
Total strikes landed
35
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
220s
Control time
167s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
49%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jafel Filho
"Pastor"
17-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
Blue corner
L1
Clayton Carpenter
8-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—