Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
·Farmasi Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Julia Polastri
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
77%
23%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 1"
64"
28
Age
Δ 12y
40
14-7
Career record
Δ 7 pp
16-11
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Polastri: 137 sig / 0 TD ·
Kowalkiewicz: 72 sig / 1 TD
Julia Polastri
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
69
Sig strikes landed
78
151
Sig strikes attempted
152
91
Total strikes landed
98
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
116s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Julia Polastri
"Psycho"
14-7
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
Blue corner
L2
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
16-11
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
18 fights · 9-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
—
L
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—