Back to UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Luan Lacerda vs Saimon Oliveira

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot ·Farmasi Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Luan Lacerda
Saimon Oliveira
56% 44%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
33
Age
Δ 2y
34
13-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
18-8
L2
Current streak
L3
2
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Lacerda: 24 sig / 3 TD · Oliveira: 21 sig / 1 TD
Luan Lacerda
Saimon Oliveira
34
Sig strikes landed
35
81
Sig strikes attempted
83
54
Total strikes landed
56
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
94s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Luan Lacerda

13-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
L UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
L3

Saimon Oliveira

18-8
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
L UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
L UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—