Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jhonata Diniz
Mario Pinto
34%
66%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 0"
79"
34
Age
Δ 7y
28
10-2
Career record
Δ 17 pp
13-0
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Diniz: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Pinto: 29 sig / 3 TD
Jhonata Diniz
Mario Pinto
17
Sig strikes landed
30
27
Sig strikes attempted
55
15
Total strikes landed
46
-0.1
Takedowns landed
1.6
-0.6
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
-27s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
13%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jhonata Diniz
10-2
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
L
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
Blue corner
W1
Mario Pinto
13-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
—