Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Vicente Luque
Joel Alvarez
40%
60%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
24-13-1
Career record
Δ 23 pp
24-4
L1
Current streak
W3
23
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Luque: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Alvarez: 89 sig / 1 TD
Vicente Luque
Joel Alvarez
42
Sig strikes landed
52
87
Sig strikes attempted
98
58
Total strikes landed
70
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
74s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Vicente Luque
"The Silent Assassin"
24-13-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
23 fights · 16-7
Last 5
L
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
W3
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
24-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—