Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Theo Haig
Cezary Oleksiejczuk
33%
67%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Haig: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Oleksiejczuk: 17 sig / 0 TD
Theo Haig
Cezary Oleksiejczuk
33
Sig strikes landed
43
68
Sig strikes attempted
83
40
Total strikes landed
62
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
97s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Theo Haig
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Cezary Oleksiejczuk
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26