Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Mandel Nallo
Samuel Silva
55%
45%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
36
Age
Δ 6y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nallo: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Silva: 9 sig / 0 TD
Mandel Nallo
Samuel Silva
37
Sig strikes landed
37
81
Sig strikes attempted
78
52
Total strikes landed
52
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
126s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mandel Nallo
"Mango"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
Blue corner
Samuel Silva
"Caveira"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30