Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kyle Nelson
Matt Frevola
68%
32%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
34
Age
Δ 1y
35
17-8-1
Career record
Δ 7 pp
11-7-1
L1
Current streak
L2
10
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nelson: 63 sig / 2 TD ·
Frevola: 43 sig / 2 TD
Kyle Nelson
Matt Frevola
36
Sig strikes landed
27
63
Sig strikes attempted
65
51
Total strikes landed
35
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
134s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kyle Nelson
"The Monster"
17-8-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
10 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
Blue corner
L2
Matt Frevola
"The SteamRolla"
11-7-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
11 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—