Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Kyle Prepolec
Drew Dober
45%
55%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
36
Age
Δ 1y
37
18-11
Career record
Δ 2 pp
29-16
L3
Current streak
L3
3
UFC fights in our DB
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Prepolec: 51 sig / 0 TD ·
Dober: 83 sig / 0 TD
Kyle Prepolec
Drew Dober
40
Sig strikes landed
44
83
Sig strikes attempted
94
52
Total strikes landed
60
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
62s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Kyle Prepolec
"Killshot"
18-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
Blue corner
L3
Drew Dober
29-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
25 fights · 13-11
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
L
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—