Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Cody Gibson
Aoriqileng
42%
58%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
38
Age
Δ 6y
32
22-13
Career record
Δ 2 pp
26-14
L1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Gibson: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Aoriqileng: 5 sig / 0 TD
Cody Gibson
Aoriqileng
46
Sig strikes landed
51
116
Sig strikes attempted
107
60
Total strikes landed
69
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
148s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cody Gibson
"The Renegade"
22-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
9 fights · 3-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Alb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jand…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
L
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
Blue corner
L1
Aoriqileng
"The Mongolian Murderer"
26-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
L
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—