Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Nasrat Haqparast
Quillan Salkilld
48%
52%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
19-6
Career record
Δ 17 pp
13-1
W5
Current streak
W2
14
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Haqparast: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Salkilld: 14 sig / 0 TD
Nasrat Haqparast
Quillan Salkilld
54
Sig strikes landed
63
103
Sig strikes attempted
130
57
Total strikes landed
65
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.0
1.0
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
24s
Control time
225s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Nasrat Haqparast
19-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
Blue corner
W2
Quillan Salkilld
13-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
W
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
—