Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Umar Nurmagomedov
Mario Bautista
74%
26%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
20-2
Career record
Δ 5 pp
18-3
L1
Current streak
W8
7
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nurmagomedov: 32 sig / 11 TD ·
Bautista: 20 sig / 0 TD
Umar Nurmagomedov
Mario Bautista
60
Sig strikes landed
59
117
Sig strikes attempted
129
89
Total strikes landed
79
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
239s
Control time
49s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Umar Nurmagomedov
20-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
L
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
Blue corner
W8
Mario Bautista
18-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 10-2
Last 5
W
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—