Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexander Volkov
Jailton Almeida
77%
23%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 1"
79"
37
Age
Δ 3y
34
40-12
Career record
Δ 5 pp
23-5
L1
Current streak
W2
17
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Volkov: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Almeida: 9 sig / 7 TD
Alexander Volkov
Jailton Almeida
33
Sig strikes landed
35
58
Sig strikes attempted
53
58
Total strikes landed
54
-0.1
Takedowns landed
2.3
-0.4
Takedowns attempted
7.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
25s
Control time
282s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alexander Volkov
"Drago"
40-12
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
17 fights · 12-5
Last 5
L
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
Blue corner
W2
Jailton Almeida
"Malhadinho"
23-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—