🏆 Title fight
Main
Women's Strawweight
Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Virna Jandiroba
Mackenzie Dern
73%
27%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 1"
63"
37
Age
Δ 5y
33
24-4
Career record
Δ 8 pp
17-5
W5
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Jandiroba: 106 sig / 9 TD ·
Dern: 118 sig / 2 TD
Virna Jandiroba
Mackenzie Dern
50
Sig strikes landed
50
106
Sig strikes attempted
102
83
Total strikes landed
73
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
7.1
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
264s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Virna Jandiroba
"Carcara"
24-4
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jand…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
W
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
W2
Mackenzie Dern
17-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—