Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tom Aspinall
Ciryl Gane
65%
35%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 3"
81"
32
Age
Δ 3y
36
16-3
Career record
Δ 3 pp
14-2
W3
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 1
Aspinall: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Gane: 30 sig / 0 TD
Tom Aspinall
Ciryl Gane
54
Sig strikes landed
42
77
Sig strikes attempted
50
49
Total strikes landed
47
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
100s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Tom Aspinall
16-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
Blue corner
W2
Ciryl Gane
"Bon Gamin"
14-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
12 fights · 10-2
Last 5
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—
L
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
L
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—