Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Josh Emmett
Youssef Zalal
37%
63%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
41
Age
Δ 12y
29
19-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
19-6-1
L1
Current streak
W4
15
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Emmett: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Zalal: 0 sig / 1 TD
Josh Emmett
Youssef Zalal
49
Sig strikes landed
53
110
Sig strikes attempted
131
63
Total strikes landed
68
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
89s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Josh Emmett
19-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
—
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
L
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
Blue corner
W4
Youssef Zalal
"The Moroccan Devil"
19-6-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
11 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Alb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—