Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Abus Magomedov
Joe Pyfer
68%
32%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
29-7-1
Career record
Δ 7 pp
17-3
W3
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Magomedov: 11 sig / 1 TD ·
Pyfer: 6 sig / 0 TD
Abus Magomedov
Joe Pyfer
40
Sig strikes landed
42
88
Sig strikes attempted
97
52
Total strikes landed
55
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
107s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Abus Magomedov
29-7-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry …
—
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
Blue corner
W2
Joe Pyfer
"Bodybagz"
17-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—