Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tom Nolan
Charlie Campbell
66%
34%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
26
Age
Δ 5y
30
11-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
10-3
W3
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Nolan: 26 sig / 1 TD ·
Campbell: 15 sig / 0 TD
Tom Nolan
Charlie Campbell
44
Sig strikes landed
45
103
Sig strikes attempted
101
54
Total strikes landed
57
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
100s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Tom Nolan
"Big Train"
11-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
—
W
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
Blue corner
W2
Charlie Campbell
"The Cannibal"
10-3
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—