Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jake Matthews
Neil Magny
66%
34%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 7"
80"
31
Age
Δ 7y
38
24-8
Career record
Δ 7 pp
32-15
W3
Current streak
W1
22
UFC fights in our DB
35
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Matthews: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Magny: 31 sig / 3 TD
Jake Matthews
Neil Magny
56
Sig strikes landed
38
106
Sig strikes attempted
90
70
Total strikes landed
65
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.5
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
193s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
24-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
22 fights · 15-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
32-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
35 fights · 23-12
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
L
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—