Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jamie Mullarkey
Rolando Bedoya
51%
49%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
18-10
Career record
Δ 6 pp
14-6
L2
Current streak
L3
11
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mullarkey: 43 sig / 3 TD ·
Bedoya: 46 sig / 0 TD
Jamie Mullarkey
Rolando Bedoya
70
Sig strikes landed
72
158
Sig strikes attempted
140
90
Total strikes landed
85
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
107s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jamie Mullarkey
18-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 5-6
Last 5
L
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
Blue corner
L3
Rolando Bedoya
"The Machine"
14-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
L
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—