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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes ·RAC Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Colby Thicknesse
Josias Musasa
61% 39%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
9-2
Career record
Δ 9 pp
8-3
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Thicknesse: 62 sig / 2 TD · Musasa: 43 sig / 1 TD
Colby Thicknesse
Josias Musasa
36
Sig strikes landed
39
83
Sig strikes attempted
92
53
Total strikes landed
52
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.40
112s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Colby Thicknesse

"Slickness"
9-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
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Blue corner
L1

Josias Musasa

"The KO Wizard"
8-3
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
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