Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jimmy Crute
Ivan Erslan
67%
33%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
15-4-2
Career record
Δ 3 pp
15-7
W1
Current streak
L2
11
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Crute: 12 sig / 2 TD ·
Erslan: 10 sig / 0 TD
Jimmy Crute
Ivan Erslan
30
Sig strikes landed
23
67
Sig strikes attempted
51
50
Total strikes landed
43
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
116s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jimmy Crute
15-4-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—
D
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
—
L
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
D
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
Blue corner
L2
Ivan Erslan
15-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—