Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Carlos Ulberg
Dominick Reyes
68%
32%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
35
Age
Δ 1y
36
16-1
Career record
Δ 17 pp
17-5
W8
Current streak
W3
9
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ulberg: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Reyes: 5 sig / 0 TD
Carlos Ulberg
Dominick Reyes
64
Sig strikes landed
48
119
Sig strikes attempted
112
72
Total strikes landed
53
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.2
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
49s
Control time
17s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Carlos Ulberg
"Black Jag"
16-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figuei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
Blue corner
W3
Dominick Reyes
"The Devastator"
17-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—