Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Cristian Perez
Manoel Sousa
58%
42%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Perez: 17 sig / 3 TD ·
Sousa: 42 sig / 0 TD
Cristian Perez
Manoel Sousa
37
Sig strikes landed
36
79
Sig strikes attempted
75
52
Total strikes landed
51
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
96s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Cristian Perez
"El Puas"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Manoel Sousa
"Manumito"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28