Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
Alik Lorenz
75%
25%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
24
Age
Δ 4y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Yakhyaev: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Lorenz: 1 sig / 0 TD
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
Alik Lorenz
35
Sig strikes landed
32
74
Sig strikes attempted
68
77
Total strikes landed
46
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
166s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
"The Hunter"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Alik Lorenz
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29