Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Damon Wilson
Marcio Barbosa
25%
75%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Wilson: 32 sig / 0 TD ·
Barbosa: 35 sig / 0 TD
Damon Wilson
Marcio Barbosa
33
Sig strikes landed
40
72
Sig strikes attempted
76
46
Total strikes landed
60
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
101s
Control time
174s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Damon Wilson
"The Nomad"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
Blue corner
Marcio Barbosa
"Ticoto"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27