Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Nghiem Van Y
Lawrence Lui
48%
52%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
26
Age
Δ 3y
29
7-2
Career record
Δ 12 pp
9-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Van Y: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Lui: 14 sig / 0 TD
Nghiem Van Y
Lawrence Lui
39
Sig strikes landed
43
78
Sig strikes attempted
93
52
Total strikes landed
50
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.9
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
28s
Control time
236s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nghiem Van Y
7-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 4.3 + 4.4
—
Blue corner
W1
Lawrence Lui
"Lok Yin"
9-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 4.3 + 4.4
—