Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
ChangMin Yoon
Sebastian Szalay
57%
43%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
31
Age
Δ 0y
32
9-3-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
11-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Yoon: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Szalay: 10 sig / 0 TD
ChangMin Yoon
Sebastian Szalay
67
Sig strikes landed
56
158
Sig strikes attempted
132
58
Total strikes landed
63
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
76s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
ChangMin Yoon
"The Big Heart"
9-3-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 4.1 + 4.2
—
Blue corner
W1
Sebastian Szalay
"Seb"
11-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 4.1 + 4.2
—