Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yin Shuai
Aaron Tau
72%
28%
Why
66"
Reach
66"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
19-7
Career record
Δ 19 pp
12-1
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Shuai: 94 sig / 1 TD ·
Tau: 80 sig / 1 TD
Yin Shuai
Aaron Tau
29
Sig strikes landed
22
64
Sig strikes attempted
57
42
Total strikes landed
38
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.2
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
151s
Control time
216s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
53%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Yin Shuai
"Black Panther"
19-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
Road to UFC 4.1 + 4.2
—
L
Road to UFC 3.3 + 3.4
—
Blue corner
W1
Aaron Tau
"Tauzemup"
12-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 4.1 + 4.2
—