Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ty Miller
Jimmy Drago
74%
26%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
25
Age
Δ 5y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Miller: 84 sig / 0 TD ·
Drago: 57 sig / 1 TD
Ty Miller
Jimmy Drago
38
Sig strikes landed
32
80
Sig strikes attempted
67
72
Total strikes landed
45
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
159s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ty Miller
"Thriller"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Jimmy Drago
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31