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Prelims1 Lightweight

Harry Hardwick vs Kaue Fernandes

UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho ·Accor Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Harry Hardwick
Kaue Fernandes
51% 49%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
31
Age
Δ 0y
30
—
Current streak
W2
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hardwick: 8 sig / 0 TD · Fernandes: 24 sig / 0 TD
Harry Hardwick
Kaue Fernandes
32
Sig strikes landed
42
75
Sig strikes attempted
87
47
Total strikes landed
51
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.3
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
144s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Harry Hardwick

"Houdini"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
Blue corner
W2

Kaue Fernandes

12-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
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