Prelims1
Welterweight
Sam Patterson vs Trey Waters
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
·Accor Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sam Patterson
Trey Waters
67%
33%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
15-3-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
10-2
W3
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Patterson: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Waters: 18 sig / 0 TD
Sam Patterson
Trey Waters
46
Sig strikes landed
31
114
Sig strikes attempted
63
59
Total strikes landed
41
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
124s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Sam Patterson
15-3-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
—
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
Blue corner
W2
Trey Waters
"The Truth"
10-2
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—