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Prelims1 Middleweight

Brad Tavares vs Robert Bryczek

UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho ·Accor Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Brad Tavares
Robert Bryczek
48% 52%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
38
Age
Δ 2y
35
22-13
Career record
Δ 6 pp
18-8
W1
Current streak
L1
26
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Tavares: 42 sig / 1 TD · Bryczek: 68 sig / 1 TD
Brad Tavares
Robert Bryczek
49
Sig strikes landed
37
114
Sig strikes attempted
92
71
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
98s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Brad Tavares

22-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 26 fights · 16-10
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
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L UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
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L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
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W UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
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L UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
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Blue corner
L1

Robert Bryczek

18-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
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