Prelims1
Welterweight
Andreas Gustafsson vs Rinat Fakhretdinov
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
·Accor Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Andreas Gustafsson
Rinat Fakhretdinov
27%
73%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
34
Age
Δ 1y
34
13-3
Career record
Δ 11 pp
25-1-1
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Gustafsson: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Fakhretdinov: 23 sig / 0 TD
Andreas Gustafsson
Rinat Fakhretdinov
57
Sig strikes landed
66
131
Sig strikes attempted
139
70
Total strikes landed
102
0.4
Takedowns landed
4.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
10.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
99s
Control time
305s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Andreas Gustafsson
"Bane"
13-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
Blue corner
W2
Rinat Fakhretdinov
"Gladiator"
25-1-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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