Main
Lightweight
Benoit Saint Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
·Accor Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Benoit Saint Denis
Mauricio Ruffy
66%
34%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
30
Age
Δ 0y
29
18-3
Career record
Δ 2 pp
14-2
W1
Current streak
W3
9
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Saint Denis: 17 sig / 3 TD ·
Ruffy: 5 sig / 0 TD
Benoit Saint Denis
Mauricio Ruffy
43
Sig strikes landed
33
85
Sig strikes attempted
62
48
Total strikes landed
39
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.2
4.3
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
154s
Control time
26s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Benoit Saint Denis
"God of War"
18-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—
Blue corner
W3
Mauricio Ruffy
14-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—