Main
Light Heavyweight
Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
·Accor Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Modestas Bukauskas
Paul Craig
78%
22%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
32
Age
Δ 6y
38
21-7
Career record
Δ 14 pp
17-10-1
W3
Current streak
L3
10
UFC fights in our DB
20
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Bukauskas: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Craig: 6 sig / 0 TD
Modestas Bukauskas
Paul Craig
36
Sig strikes landed
25
77
Sig strikes attempted
55
60
Total strikes landed
35
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
99s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Modestas Bukauskas
"The Baltic Gladiator"
21-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
Blue corner
L3
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
17-10-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
20 fights · 9-9
Last 5
L
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
L
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—