Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Steve Erceg
Ode Osbourne
75%
25%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 5"
73"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
14-5
Career record
Δ 13 pp
14-9
L3
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Erceg: 20 sig / 3 TD ·
Osbourne: 35 sig / 1 TD
Steve Erceg
Ode Osbourne
37
Sig strikes landed
39
82
Sig strikes attempted
94
57
Total strikes landed
44
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
100s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Steve Erceg
"Astroboy"
14-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
L
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
Blue corner
W1
Ode Osbourne
"The Jamaican Sensation"
14-9
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 5-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
—
L
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—