Back to UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Julius Walker vs Rafael Cerqueira

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Julius Walker
Rafael Cerqueira
76% 24%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
26
Age
Δ 9y
35
7-3
Career record
Δ 1 pp
11-5
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Walker: 44 sig / 6 TD · Cerqueira: 19 sig / 0 TD
Julius Walker
Rafael Cerqueira
43
Sig strikes landed
47
81
Sig strikes attempted
80
76
Total strikes landed
56
2.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.3
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
244s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Julius Walker

"Juice Box"
7-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
Blue corner
L2

Rafael Cerqueira

"The Lion"
11-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
L UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—